Thirteen Lessons from the Thirteenth Century

Yuval Noah Harari has written a book called  21 Lessons for the 21st Century and I am very jealous. So I am thinking about writing a book or at least an essay called 13 Lessons from the 13th Century. I know very little about the 13th century but this title is very appealing. So I shall write anyway! I am not a good writer but this title is very appealing. So I shall write anyway!

Lesson 1: 

It was the year 1199 and two young women who lived in a Christian convent in Portugal called Convento de Sao Francisco were working in the yard.  Their names is not important. They have been dead for many centuries anyways. Lets call them Alila and Balila. As they were working Alila said: "You know this is a very special year. It is the last year of the 12th century. " Balila looked at the beautiful scenery around them and smiled. "Yes it is. I can't wait for the new year festivals. They are going to be more elegant than ever. In a few months we will enter the 13th century. ... You know I was thinking, why do we call it the 13th century when all the years start with 12? Next year is 1200!" 

Alila looked at her for a second. "You are right; it is strange, but it is this way because the  first 99 years in any calendar are considered the first century. So the second century started with the year 100 and third century started with the year 200. 

"But it does not make sense. Don't you think a century that starts with the year 1200 must be called the 12th century? " 

"If we go by that rule then we will not have a name for the years 1 to 99? What century will that be?" Sail Balila. 

As they continued to work this question preoccupied Alila's mind. She even thought about it that night. Next morning they continued their work on the convent's yard. 

"You know Bali (informal for Balila), I was thinking last night about this mismatch between the century and year numbers. I think there is a solution. " 

"What?" 

"We can skip one hundred years and call next year 1300 instead of 1200. Then the name and years of each century will be matched forever. The year 1400 will be the fist year of the 14th century and year 2000 will start the 20th century. This will be amazing." 

Balila looked at her for a few seconds. "You are crazy! No one will do that." 

"No one has done it yet! But it must be done. Otherwise year after year people will wonder about this mismatch."  

Balila wanted to talk about other topics that day-about the normal issues that they talked about every day as they worked. Alila, however, was obsessed with this idea. Next evening Alila asked for a meeting with mother-superior. She asked mother superior to write a letter on her behalf to the court of King Sancho to suggest the skip from 1200 to 1300. Not surprisingly mother superior thought that she was crazy and refused. But Alila went back to her several times. Finally, after receiving permission from Abbess Mafalda, mother superior agreed to write the letter but not to the King. She said that she will write it to Queen Dulce who knew Abbess Mafalda. Alila was very happy. Next day mother superior met with her for two hours and wrote a two page letter to the Queen. She explained that this was the idea of a young nun in her 

Five days later Queen Dulce received the letter. She found it amusing and tried to imagine what the young woman who had come up with the idea looked like. She did not show the letter to her husband and did not respond. Alila continued to live and work in Convento do San Fransisco until she died in 1254. Once in a while she would remember the letter that she sent to Queen Dulce but she did not pursue her idea any further. 

Lesson 1: If you have an idea and you want powerful leaders to pay attention to it, don't just share it with one person. Send it to several people and hope that at least one of them will find it interesting. If Alila had sent copies of that letter to other Queens and Kings in Europe, perhaps an adjustment would have been made to the Western world's calendar. Just imagine how nice it would have been if we were able to celebrate year 2000 as the start of the 20th century instead of 21st Century. Perhaps one day Alila's letter will be discovered and would inspire this adjustment. In 2006 Myriam Cir published a book called Letters of a Portuguese Nun.  

End. 

*** ***

Lesson 2: (One 13th century muslim woman's quest for understanding the status of women in heaven. )

Under development. 

***** ** 

Lesson 3: (Bad things happen to those who question the faith and the divinity in a small South American pre-European Kingdom. The events reinforce faith and increase social coherence. People attribute those bad things to divine punishment.) 

Under development.    

Lesson 13: 

[The proper thing to do is to write the lessons of 13th century in sequential order, which means that lesson one must be followed by lesson two. Life, however, is short and unpredictable. So I like to write the 13th lesson immediately after the first lesson; so that if I did not have a chance to write the other lessons this essay will have a rational connection to its title.]

It was the first day of January of year 1212 in the small city of Verucchio.  Have you ever visited Verucchio in the western region of Italy near Rimini? Anyways! In that small town a poor family was struggling to survive. Vitorio and Amitula had three daughters but Vitorio never openly blamed Amitula for her failure to give birth to a son. Like most people in and around Verucchio, Vitorio was a farmer. And like most farmers he worked for the largest landlord of the area, the Malatesta della Penna. 

  That morning a woman who worked in the Malatesta family castle came to visit Amitula. Her name is not important but she was wearing a blue scarf. "Lady Adelasia needs a personal servant. I am here to see if you would like to offer Carafina."    Lady Adelasia was the wife of Malatesta della Penna. Carafina was the oldest daughter of Vitorio and Amitula. She was 17 years old. Carafina was very different from her younger sisters Corsa (12 years old) and Divitia (10 years old).  For one thing she was 170 centimeters tall, which was considered very tall for women her age in 13th century Italy.  She also had an insatiable curiosity from early childhood, which was a direct result of her high level of intelligence. Corsa and Divitia had shown average intelligence for their ages. 

    The third difference was in the area of feminine beauty. Carafina was not as attractive as a child and she was not attractive as a young woman. This was the main reason that she had not been married off yet. In the rural  community of Verucchio most young girls were married by age 15 or 16. Vitorio and Amitula were very concerned about this issue as they feared that Carafina will never receive a marriage offer. So, Vitorio did not get upset when Amitula informed him of the visiting woman's suggestion. He immediately agreed. 

   When Amitula informed Carafina that she will be sent to the Malatesta Castle she did not cry or refuse. Her immediate acceptance came as a surprise to her mother. The only people in Vitorio's household who were sad about this development were Corsa and Divitia. They both loved their older sister. Carafina's response was calm because when the blue-scarf woman was talking to her mother she heard their conversation and she had time to think about it before her mother mentioned it. Carafina was actually happy and excited about this opportunity. For a young woman with insatiable curiosity like her, this was a gateway to a new world with lots of new things to learn. She also knew that with low likelihood of marriage she was becoming a burden on her parents. 

   What Carafina did not know was that her selection was not an accident. Lady Adelasia had instructed the blue scarf woman to look for a young woman who was not too attractive. Based on an advice from her mother, Lady Adelasia never recruited young attractive servants who might have caught the attention of her husband.   

***

Three days later the blue scarf woman came for Carafina and took her to the castle. She promised Amitula that her daughter would be allowed to visit the family once per month. Carafina did not take any personal belongings with her except for a small doll from her childhood. The walk to the castle in that cold winter day took 40 minutes. The blue scarf woman took her to the servants quarters where she was given a bath and fresh clothes. Her own clothes were burned immediately. That evening she was taken to Lady Adelasia's room for the initial introduction.  Carafina's mistress was a beautiful young woman not much older than her. Adelasia was surprised by Carafina's height but it did not bother her because she concluded that her husband will not find her attractive regardless. 

Carafina met  Malatesta della Penna three days later when he returned from a trip to Rimini. Master Malatesta was young and handsome. Later Carafina learned from one of the older servants that he was only 29 or 30 years old. In those three days Carafina had already gained the trust of Lady Adelasia, who found Carafina's insatiable curiosity amusing. Carafina was spontaneous and Adelasia tolerated her occasional comments and questions. This was very unusual because most young servants did not speak and simply carried out orders in silence when they were interacting with their masters and ladies.  Master Malatesta did not have any specific reaction when he saw Carafina. She was the third personal servant of Lady Adelasia in three years. 

As days passed by, Carafina learned more about Adelasia and Master della Penna. Occasionally she was able to hear Lady Adelasia's conversations with her husband or her mother as she served food or carried out other tasks. Very soon Carafina learned that Lady Adelasia had suffered a miscarriage a few months earlier but was eager to get pregnant again as soon as possible.  One day after bringing a glass of wine for her lady, Carafina made a comment that ordinary servants would never dare to ask. 

"My Lady I know that you like to become pregnant as soon as possible and I have an important suggestion for you." 

Lady Adelasia was shocked by this out of place comment from her servant. If if was not for Carafina's previous odd behavior she would have immediately ordered her to be punished but instead she simply stared at Carafina with a facial expression which revealed both astonishment and outrage. Since Carafina was very inept in emotional intelligence and had very little capacity to understand body language, she continued with excitement after sitting on the ground in front of her lady.

"My Lady, this is a very unique year and if you can time your pregnancy correctly your child - hopefully a son- can be born in the most blessed day of all times and he will have a bright future. "

Lady Adelasia was outraged. It was not because Carafina was daring to talk about such a private issue. rather, it was because it meant Carafina had passively eavesdropped on her private conversations. Lady Adelasia was about to scream at Carafina and throw her out of her chamber, but Carafina started talking again with even more excitement before Adelasia had a chance to open her mouth.   

"My Lady" said Carafina. "Since we are in the year 1212, December 12 is a very special day because it's day and month and year numbers all match. They are all twelve. This must have a special meaning for our lord in heavens and any child born in that day will be blessed." Carafina was referring to the date 12/12/1212.  This comment aroused Lady Adelasia's curiosity although she was still angry. She stared at Carafina for a few second. It was also hard for her to dully understand what Carafina had said. 

Carafina continued before Adelasia could stop her. 

"My Lady a day like this only happens once in a century and it is very special. Last time it happened was November 11 of year 1111 and before that it was October 10 of year 1010. You should time your pregnancy to .." Before Carafina had a chance to finish this sentence Lady Adelasia stood up in anger and shouted at her to get our. "How dare you talk about my personal life?" She screamed at Carafina. 

Carafina stood up in shock. She was expecting to receive a complement from her lady for this suggestion. As she walked toward the door Lady Adelasia walked behind her in anger and threatened to send her back if she dares to do such a thing again. 

In her shock and bewilderment Carafina added one more sentence as she left the room: "My Lady the best days for you to get pregnant are between March 9 and March 15." This incident took place on March 3rd. 

*** 

In order to punish Carafina and teach her a lesson Lady Adelasia ordered her to be confined in a dark room in the basement of the castle for three days. The first few hours of this punishment were very difficult for her but soon she escaped into her fantasies and thought experiments. She imagined solutions to many questions that always occupied her mind. After this punishment Carafina was more reserved in front of her lady. Lady Adelasia had not said anything about this incident to her husband because she knew that Malatesta della Penna wold have immediately expelled Carafina. 

*** 

One beautiful day in late April the residents of the castle learned that their Lady was pregnant. The servants were overjoyed and they all prayed that this one will not end in a miscarriage. In the afternoon of  May 2nd Lady Adelasia was resting in the garden that blue scarf lady approached her. 

"My Lady I have heard some very disturbing news about Carafina that I think you should be aware of." 

This came as a surprise to Lady Adelasia because she was satisfied with Carafina's manner since the punishment. 

"My Lady, I'm worried that Carafina might have committed blasphemy against our Lord in Heaven." 

"What do you mean?" asked Lady Adelasia. 

"My Lady one of the servants came to me three days ago and shared a very disturbing news. She said that Carefina had told her and another servant that if the earth was circling around the sun we would still feel as if the sun was circling around earth." Said the blue-scarf woman as she made the sign of the cross on herself. She seemed very nervous. 

"You know that Carafina is not normal. She is full of strange stupid ideas." Said Lady Adelasia.

"But my Lady this is a blasphemous thought. We know that our Lord in Heaven created the earth and then created the sun and the stars to circle around it. To spread doubt about the Lord's creation is a sin and I'm worried that it could bring us ill omen. Last night one of the cooks burned his hand in the kitchen and today morning one of the servants fell on stairs and injured herself. ....  My Lady, these can be signs from our Lord in Heaven that we have a sinner in our midst. "

Lady Adelasia looked at her for a few seconds in silence. 

"My Lady we cannot allow the Lord in Heaven to be angry with us while you are pregnant. God forbid if this bad omen falls upon your unborn. "

Lady Adelasia put her left hand on her belly as she heard these words. She felt very anxious. She ordered the blue-scarf woman to send Carafina back to her family immediately and not to talk to anyone about this issue.   

The blue-scarf woman did not waste any time. Without any explanation she took Carafina back to her family and gave her mother three Soldos (silver coins). Amitula could not stop her tears. "What did she do wrong?" She asked. "May our Lord in Heaven have mercy on her soul." Said the blue-scarf lady before she left.

*** 

Carafina knew why she was expelled from the castle but she felt innocent. Three days earlier she asked another young servant, Corelia, to help her with an experiment. 

"Can you hold this loaf of bread in your hand without moving it for a moment?" Carafina asked Corelia. Then Carafina inserted a stick that was about ten centimeters long in the bread vertically so that it was holding firm but about seven centimeter of it was visible. She next lighted a candle and slowly rotated it around the bread. 

"Carafina what are you doing?" Asked Corelia. 

"I want to see how the shadow of this stick moves as I rotate the candle around the bread. This loaf of bread is like our flat earth, which sits at the center of the universe. The candle is like the sun that rotates around earth." Then Carafina carefully watched if the stick as she rotated the candle several times. 

Corelia did not understand what was the point of this experiment but patiently held the bread. 

"Now lets switch."  said Carafina as she took the bread from Corelia and gave her the candle. "Now you hold the candle steady and I will rotate the bread around it. 

"Why do you want to do this?" asked Corelia. 

"I like to see how the shadow of the stick will move if the earth was rotating around the earth."

 Corelia felt uncomfortable as she heard these words. She knew that the Lord had created the earth as the center of the universe and it will be a sin to think otherwise. She did not say anything because Carafina had done her a favor a few days ago and she felt that by helping her with this experiment she was returning the favor.  

Carafina rotated the loaf of bread a few times around the candle and carefully observed the movement of the stick's shadow on the bread.  

"just as I guessed, the movement of the stick's shadow on this loaf of bread is the same." Said Carafina. 

Corelia did not say anything. She just wanted this strange thing to be over with. 

"If this stick is a human being that was standing in one spot from dawn to dusk, how would he know if the sun is circling around the earth or the earth is circling around the sun." Continued Carafina. 

Corelia felt anxious and made a cross sign on her chest. "Carafina these are sinful thoughts. We know that our Lord in Heaven created the earth as the center of the universe for us and everything in sky rotates around us." 

"I know that - and god forbid, I am not questioning our Lord's design. I'm just saying that if I stood still in one spot under the sun for one whole day and looked the movement of my  shadow I would not be able to say if the sun was rotating around the earth or the other way around. " 

After this experiment Corelia felt tormented for hours. Finally, she went to the blue-scarf woman and told her what Carafina had done and had said.  

*** 

 In the month of December the residents of Verucchio learned that Lady Adelasia had given birth to a son named Malatesta da Verucchio. Malatesa della Penna was overjoyed. He organized several days of festivities for the entire village to welcome his son. Malatesta da Verucchio grew up to become a powerful political leader. He eventually became the ruler of the entire Rimini region. He elevated the Malatesta family to the position of power and prominence throughout Italy. He lived for one hundred years (1212-1213). This was an amazing long life for 13th century Europe in which men felt lucky if they lived beyond their 50th birthday. There is no historical record to determine if Malatesta da Verucchio was born on the twelfth day of December or not! 

Carafina lived with her parents for two years after she was expelled from the castle. In March of 1214 she was married off to  a young man from a merchant family by the name of Andrea Landini, who had lost his eyesight to smallpox post effect in childhood. They had a happy and successful marriage. 

Lesson 13: You must be very careful about the impact of what you say on people's established beliefs and superstitions. Even in modern times some people find refuge in beliefs that can not be supported by science but they find emotional security in such beliefs. 

 (Finished on November 20, 2020) 

 

   

  

  

The Youth Can Save Us If They Dare To Defy Us

 Yes our planet our echo system face may challenges. Out societies are under stress. The international community is a jungle in which the strong pray on the weak and proclaim democracy and justice. Out societies are overwhelmed with sectarian, political, ethnic and racial fragmentation. 

Political leaders, business leaders, artists, writers, ....have not been able to solve our most dangerous and most costly challenges such as pollution and global warming. 

The youth can save us in the long if they can do two thinks that the national governments and their parents generation don't approve. 

First, the youth can help reduce the burden of overpopulation by making a commitment to have no more than one child. If a large number of young adults have one child or less, population growth will slow down and perhaps we might witness a population reduction for the first time since 18th century. Imagine how nice our world will be if we can role back the human population to five billion. There will be more space and more resources per capita. We can even offer more space to plants and animals. 

Second, the youth can help reduce fragmentation and war and hatred by marrying outside their ethnic, caste, race, religion.  Imagine two tribes that have a ling history of war and hatred and killing one another. If the youth of these two tribes start marrying each other after two generations there will be so many mix children that war and violence between the two tribes will become unimaginable. 

Third, the youth can save us by resisting the temptation of materialism and wasteful consumerism. Having a bigger car! Having a larger home just for sake of achieving a higher social status. It is better to live a comfortable life with the minimum waste of resources and causing less pollution.  Abandon the obsession with materialism.  Work hard and try to be successful. But don't don't respect people more just because they have more wealth and more material possessions. Don't envy anyone as long as you have enough income and wealth to enjoy security and peace ming. 

Adopting these values and taking these steps is difficult.  It will upset the elders and parents of young men and women. Yes it will! But it will be well worth the effort.   

Impact of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor on China's Relations with Middle East (February 2020)

Imperfect #2 (Solo Guitar Performance by Nader Habibi, January 2020)

Failure of Iran's Foreign Policy in Iraq

   In the past few months Iraq has suffered large scale protests and violence, which has taken hundreds of lives. The protestors not only blame their own political leaders and political institutions, but also the Iranian government. They believe that Iran's interference in Iraqi politics has contributed to the corruption and factionalism.
   Anti-Iran sentiments have intensified since October 2019 and protestors have set Iran's consulate in Najaf on fire twice. Anti-Iranian protestors have also started an a boycott campaign
against Iranian products. Iraq has emerged as one of Iran's largest export markets for non-oil products since 2018. It is an important market for Iran because of the large volume of border trade  which is a source of income and livelihood for a large number of small and medium businesses. If domestic instability of Iraq and anti-Iran sentiments lead to a significant decline in Iran's trade with that country, many businesses will suffer. 
   Ever since the fall of Saddam Hossein in 2003 Iran has invested heavily to maintain close relations with various Shi'a factions in Iraq and expand bilateral relations. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have also developed close links with Shi'a paramilitary groups. When ISIS captured a large amount of Iraqi territory in 2014 the Iraqi military was not strong enough to confront them.  Iran played an important role in arming and supporting the Hashd al-Sha'bi (People's Mobilization Units), which confronted and eventually defeated ISIS.
   Alliance with Iraq is also an important component of Iran's broader Middle East policy. Iran has invested heavily in supporting the Behsar Assad regime in Syria and in order to have land access to Syria (through which it will have access to Hisbollah), it needs close cooperation with Iraq. Iran's Shi'a Crescent (which consists of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hizbollah), will not be effective without Iraq, which is situated between Iran and Syria.
   Now the Iran-Iraq alliance that Iran has worked so lard to create and solidify, is at risk. Iran should not ignore the public sentiment in Iraq. It also must rethink its interventions in Iraq that have led to these growing resentments. Clearly good relations with Iraq are very important for Iran's security and economy. Interfering in Iraq's domestic affairs is not the right way to go. It will only lead to more negative sentiments. Furthermore, The United State, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are working very hard to reduce Iran's influence in Iraq. They are resourceful and have contributed to the rising anti-Iran sentiments in recent months.
   Under these conditions any effort by Iran to maintain influence in Iraq through informal and non-governmental channels will only lead to more anti-Iran sentiments. Iran is not in a position to treat Iraq as a client state. It should respect Iraq's sovereignty and treat it as an equal and sovereign neighbor. Instead of joining other external powers that interfere in Iraq's affairs Iran should work with Iraqi government to empower it to assert its sovereignty. It is only through this approach that Iran can gain the respect of friendship of Iraqi people in the long run. 

Work-Travel Opportunities for Low-wage Low-skill Workers

Engineer, Doctors, Businessmen, Professionals and high income persons in general, have many opportunities to travel inside their country and around the world. Low-wage workers, on the other hand, cannot afford to travel. Their families can hardly travel either because their job contract does not include any vacation or  they cannot afford to pay for the travel expenses.

There is, however, a possibility to give these low-income persons a chance to visit and spend a few days in other cities. If they work for a large corporation that has branches in many cities, the corporation can allow them to spend some time working in other branches or franchises.
Lets imagine this possibility by looking at Walmart. The Walmart corporation have stores all over the U.S. and in many other countries. The employees of Walmart in these stores do similar work. A person that works in the electronics department of one store branch can perform the same task in any other branch. So Walmart can allow its employees to spend a few weeks per year working in other branches. It can even create an employee swap program among stores.

This mechanism will allow a low-wage Walmart worker in New York to take his family to Miami for a couple of weeks and work in a Walmart store branch in that city. This way he will continue to get paid and his family can enjoy a vacation. This work-vacation policy is feasible and it will be a great service to millions of low-income working households all over the world.  

Immigrants Against Over-Immigration

(Last update: July 27, 2019) 

Should immigrants advocate for more immigration?  The answer is no! It is not unusual for an individual who has been fortunate enough to migrate to a developed country, like the United States, to help his relatives join him. It might even seem rational for an immigrant to advocate for pro-immigration policies.  Excess immigration however, can lead to a native backlash with negative consequences for the immigrant community.

Even in an immigration-based society like the United States, there is a limit to how many immigrants the native population is willing to tolerate-particularly when the ethnic and racial background of new immigrants is different from the majority ethnic group. When the number of immigrants from visibly different cultural and ethnic backgrounds grows too fast, the native population develops hostile attitudes toward immigrants. This hostility is partially rooted in fear of the native ethnic group about losing their majority status in political, cultural and economic spheres. As a result of this fear the political movements that call for immigration freeze or expulsion of immigrants will become more popular.

Overtime the immigrant-native ratio (I/N ratio) becomes a key factor in sentiments of the native population toward immigration. The natives will worry that this ratio might become too large and threaten their numerical majority, which will be equivalent to an I/N ratio larger than one. There is no specific common I/N threshold for the entire native population.  Some extreme and ethnocentric groups might be opposed to even a small immigrant population (, feeling uneasy even if the I/N ratio stands at 0.1). Other native citizens might develop ratio anxiety at a higher threshold (for example I/N = 0.4). A 2018 analysis of public opinion in the United States by Sherkat and Lehma, for example, has found a diversity of opinion about immigration among various religious groups.

Nevertheless, it is not hard to imagine that as the number of immigrants increases, eventually it might pass the threshold ratio of a majority of the native population. In that case a country might find itself in a situation that more than 50% of natives will experience ratio anxiety.  In a 2014 academic article, Benjamin Newman shows that residents develop anti-immigration attitudes if the number of immigrants in their local community increases sharply.

The social and political consequences of ratio anxiety among the majority ethnic group (natives) should not be ignored. The negative attitude toward immigrants might be rooted in racism for some individuals regardless of the I/N ratio, but for many others it can be a result of ratio anxiety. The anti-immigrant groups frequently play on this "ratio anxiety" of the majority population to gain support for their cause and recruit members. This ratio anxiety (the fear of becoming a minority as a result of immigration and higher birth rates among some ethnic communities) has been visible in Europe and the United States since 1970s and increasingly referred to as the fear of “replacement”.

In recent years the fear of replacement has emerged as the dominant anti-immigration narrative in Europe. As explained in detail in a recent (2017) New Yorker article titled "The French Origins of You Will Not Replace Us", a growing number of mainstream citizens who do not identify with right-wing racist groups, are worried about the demographic changes that reduce the share of white Europeans in total population.  The most recent champion of these demographic anxieties is Renaud Camos whose 2012 book le grant replacement articulates these ideas.

1) Native Response to Over-Immigration

If the native population that is worried about the I/N ratio does not find a political mechanism to stabilize or reduce this ratio, some individuals might engage in negative and harmful behavior (toward “others”) at personal (micro) level. These actions can lead to social instability and make life more difficult for the groups that are perceived as "other" by the native. The target groups might even be second or third generation immigrants or even established minorities. Yet they might face the same consequences because of the "otherness" of their appearance. 

Strategic harassment: When the number of visible minorities (visible "other") rises to a level that it causes anxiety in a community, the native residents might engage in deliberate harassment and rejection of the target groups in order to encourage them to leave and also to deter other members of the target group from moving into their community. This type harassment rose sharply in Germany after the government admitted one million Syrian refugees in 2015. It also becomes a taboo for any native to show a warm and welcoming attitude. This deliberate strategic harassment can take the form of hate mail, dumping garbage on an immigrant's yard, and more harmful activities such as property damage.

Overtime, many communities might engage in competitive strategic harassment to deter undesirable families from moving into their neighborhood or community.

Strategic avoidance: In more sophisticated, more prosperous communities, the natives might express their displeasure not by overt harassment but by avoidance and exclusion. They will treat visible "other" neighbors as if they don't exist. They might avoid any interaction other than a minimum greeting ("Hi, How Are You?", "Good Morning!"), but never show any interest in them as individuals or engage in any social interactions with them.

Strategic Cruelty: A local community, a state government or even the national government might adopt very serious measures to make the life experience very difficult for new comers and immigrants in an effort to deter further immigration. For example, a community might impose limits on social services for new immigrants, or it might deny bilingual education, or excessive search and ID checks on visible "others". Treatment of asylum seekers in the United States under Trump administration is an example of strategic cruelty that is intended to deter others from trying to seek asylum. Government bodies representing native populations engage in strategic cruelty when they cannot obtain sufficient political support for reducing or preventing immigration legally.

   Examples of strategic cruelty and strategic harassment are abundant in Germany after 2015. In 2015 the German government admitted a million Syrian refugees. This policy angered a segment of German population. As a result harassment, cruelty and violence against all visible immigrants has intensified. The angry mobs not only target the new refugees but they are making life more difficult for all visible minorities - even third and fourth generation immigrants whose families have lived in Germany for 60 or 70 years.

Domestic White Flight: As the non-white population of a community increases, the whites that feel concerned about the I/N ratio might relocate to states with smaller non-white population.  Studies of residential choice in the United States based on census data provide strong evidence for domestic white flight among communities and among states. These relocations defeat the progressive federal policies that try to generate more diverse communities. They also lead to geographic and political divide among more diverse states and states with smaller non-white population. This geographic divide at state level, in turn, will lead to a liberal-conservative political divide over a wide range of socio-economic policies.

White Flight to Europe

While traditionally the trans-Atlantic flow of immigration has always been east to west (from Europe to North America), high I/N ratio might lead to a reverse migration by some white Americans to European countries with a solid white majority. While imposing severe restrictions on non-white migration many European countries welcome white immigrants, particularly their own diaspora population. The reason is that they, on one hand they experience low fertility among their native population and on the other hand their are worried about high fertility among their non-European population. As a result return to Europe is relatively easy for any white American that can prove his/her European heritage. When Argentina faced a severe economic crisis in 1990s, some Argentinians where able to migrate to Italy simply because of their Italian last name.

2) Immigrant Experience and Ratio Anxiety

When the immigrant community is relatively small and it is not perceived as a threat to the population ratio of the native population, the native population has a tolerant and positive attitude toward the immigrants. If the population of immigrants grows larger and becomes a concern for the natives then the native attitude toward immigrants will change and they will face a hostile social environment. Immigrant families who initially felt welcomed and accepted will gradually face rejection, discrimination and hostility. As a growing number of minorities and immigrants move into suburban neighborhoods the ratio anxiety is on the rise. 

Suburban atomization and isolation: Some American suburbs have undergone a visible transformation as a result of the rapid influx of high-wealth, highly educated professional families from non-European ethnic groups. As the number of these visibly different residents in a community increases, the natives become more anxious about their “other-looking” neighbors. They try to minimize their interactions with these new neighbors and, as many social scientists have observed, the large number of new neighbors will result in the atomization of these communities. The sense of common values and community spirit will decline as neighbors become more distant from each other.

  Gone are the days that neighbors knew each other and they had occasional social interactions. Now each resident family mostly socializes with members of its own ethnic community and the interactions among neighbors of various ethnic communities is limited. In prosperous suburbs everyone is nice and polite but no one shows much interest in others. Not only the natives don't show much interest in “others”, but the immigrant/ethnic families live in isolation from each other as well.

  On a typical street in a suburban town you can find families of Chinese, Indian, Russian, Iranian, Arab and other ethnicities plus ordinary euro-Americans. However, it is rare to see social interactions (such as friendships, dinner invitations, …) between two neighbors of different ethnic backgrounds. Many residents don’t even know the na e of their next door neighbors. This is happening at the same time that residents are well aware of the growing ethno-isolation. If the ethnic balance of these communities shifts even further in favor of new immigrants, the situation is likely to get worse.

  Education-obsessed neighborhoods: We are also observing a new development in some high-income suburbs that have developed a positive reputation for their education systems.  These communities are very attractive to ethnic groups that put a high value on education of their children. However, as the ethnic mix changes and the share of these ethnic groups increases, some native families with school age children stay away from these communities because they are worried that most students in public schools of these communities will be so competitive that their children will be in a disadvantage.

This perception will keep away some families and lead to an even larger concentration of education-oriented ethnic groups in these communities. In a 2011 academic article Albert Saiz and Susan Wachter provide evidence of white flight from neighborhoods that have experienced rapid increase in immigration inflow. In a related 2013 study Tomas Jimmez and Adam Horowitz look at how the norms of achievement and success have changed in a California community with the rise of Asian population.

Reverse Migration: Members of some minority and immigrant communities that face discrimination and isolation as a result the native ratio anxiety, might select to return to their countries of origin. This option becomes more viable if their country of origin experiences a significant increase in standard of leaving. Faced with ongoing and continuous ethnic hostility in Germany, tens of thousands of people from the Turkish community returned to Turkey in 2000s. This reverse migration was partly motivated by the strong economy and availability of many business opportunities in that country in the first decade of the 21^st century. As China and India becomes more prosperous and better developed we might witness a similar reverse migration among Asian Americans.

Setback for Liberal Policies: The ratio anxiety among white Americans has had a profound indirect impact on all types of public policy. The election of President Trump was partly a result of this anxiety about over-immigration. Many of the whites that voted for Trump were concerned about the browning of America (a decline in the population share of whites as a result of rapid immigration of non-whites into America). President Trump has slowed down or suspended several environmental policies that would have boon good for preventing global change. Reduction of restrictions on coal industry is a good example. He has also reversed many other progressive achievements of the Obama administration. The setback in healthcare reform under Trump administration is very unfortunate. Had it not been for white concern about over-immigration, he might not had been elected.

As the progressive politicians and advocacy groups fight to end discrimination against immigrants they should not encourage more immigration. Instead they should call for a significant reduction in legal immigration and effective prevention of illegal immigration, in order to prevent further demographic shift in the United States. Ending over-immigration and addressing native anxiety will help reduce prejudice, racism and social rejection toward immigrants. The young white men will then have less incentive to join right wing extremist movements that chant "you will not replace us".

3) The U.S. 2020 Presidential Elections and the Ratio Anxiety

In recent years the Democratic Oarty in the United States has emerged as a party of minorities while a larger share of whites have gravitated toward the Republican party. We are also witnessing a divergence between the immigration policies of democrats and republicans.   As Sahil Cooper and Peter Coy have shown in their 2018 article this immigration divide is a new development, which reflects the growing opposition to immigration among the supporters of the republican party.

In their 2017 book,  Marisa Abrajano, Zoltan Hajnal offer detailed statistics on how the ethnic and racial identity of the supporters of Republican and Democratic parties has changed in recent decades and how the immigration debate has played out in domestic politics. After the victory of Donald Trump in 2016 presidential elections the Republican party, and President Trump, have adopted an anti-immigration position, which includes imposing severe restrictions on legal immigration and preventing any type of leniency toward illegal immigrants. The Trump administration has also been very hostile toward asylum seekers.  President Trump is fully aware of the growing  I/N ratio anxiety among white voters.

The democratic party, on the other hand is advocating for more tolerant immigration and asylum policies. The party has not shown any sensitivity to the anxiety ratio of the native population. This insensitivity is a mistake and might push a large number of white voters who have supported the democratic party's liberal values on economic and healthcare policies  to vote republican. The ratio anxiety played an important role in President Trump's success in the 2016 presidential elections.

It is clear that President Trump is aware of the growing anxiety of some white voters about immigration. He will make immigration a leading issue in his 2020 re-election campaign. The ugly chants of "Send her back" during one of his presidential campaigns in July 2019 is a good demonstration of President Trump’s willingness to exploit these sentiments. What the media did not notice during the same speech was the silence of the same crowd when President Trump expressed support to merit-based immigration of skilled workers. The crowd did not chant "Let them in". This mute reaction was an indication of the participants’ opposition to all types of immigration.

In order to reduce the number of white voters who might support slogans like "Send her back", the Democratic Party must support a significant reduction in immigration, while strongly rejecting racism and ethnic prejudice.

In other words, the Democratic Party (and its 2020 Presidential cadidates) must realize that there are many white Americans with liberal and progressive views who are worried about the I/N ratio. It is also a mistake to assume that the new immigrants and non-white ethnic minorities are interested in large annual immigration, which will further increase the I/N ratio. They might prefer a stable I/N ratio in order to prevent a native backlash and reduce the risk of racial/ethnic tensions. 

As a 2018 study on voting behavior of first and second generation immigrants in Switzerland (where 23% of the population were foreign born in 2014,) has shown, the members of the immigrant community are as likely to oppose pro-immigration policies as the native population. In this study Oliver Strijbis and Javier Polaviera found that the voting behavior of immigrants in a 2014 referendum on immigration policy was similar to the natives and majority of voters in both groups supported an anti-immigration proposal.

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Readings and references:
Sherkat, D. E., & Lehman, D. (2018). Bad Samaritans: Religion and Anti‐Immigrant and Anti‐Muslim Sentiment in the United States. Social Science Quarterly, 99(5), 1791-1804.

Jiménez, T. R., & Horowitz, A. L. (2013). When white is just alright: How immigrants redefine achievement and reconfigure the ethnoracial hierarchy. American Sociological Review, 78(5), 849-871.

Abrajano, M., & Hajnal, Z. L. (2017). White backlash: immigration, race, and American politics. Princeton University Press.

Strijbis, O., & Polavieja, J. (2018). Immigrants against immigration: Competition, identity and immigrants’ vote on free movement in Switzerland. Electoral Studies, 56, 150-157.

Travel Less. Eat Less. Pollute Less.

Travel is fun! People all over the world love to travel. When you travel, however,  you pollute. Any type of travel leads to air pollution and solid waste pollution. A recent detailed study on the environmental impact of global tourism has shown that the contribution of global tourism to global warming and pollution is much larger than previously estimated. 

It will not be fair or practical to ask people to stop traveling for vacation or business, but it makes sense for all of us to travel less to help reduce air pollution and global warming. If you have seen a beautiful city like Paris ten times why not forego your next trip to Paris and give a chance to another human being to visit that city for the first time. The severe and worsening income inequality around the world means that a small share of human population gets to travel a lot and a large segment can not afford to travel at all. 

With the advancement and availability of internet it is possible to substitute virtual travel for actual travel. There are many beautiful places that you see just by going to an appropriate website. There are even live cameras that will take you live to many cities, to jungles of Africa, to mountains of south America, to coral reaves, to many many places.

Less Business Travel:

Many business trips are unnecessary. You can meet business partners by Skype. You can send a product sample by Fed Ex and then discuss it with a potential buyer on Skype.  Businesses don't mind because they can deduct a portion of the travel costs from their corporate income tax and can pass a portion to consumers. Business leaders have a moral duty to minimize business travel until we find a way to stop and reverse global warming. 

Travel Less for Academic Conferences 

   Academic conferences are also unnecessary. There was a time when attending an academic conference was the only way to network with other experts in your field and initiate joint research. Those days are gone. Now all scholars who like to exchange ideas or do joint projects are continuously in contact by email and Skype and instant messenger and Facebook and ..... Conference participation is seen more as a trip for relaxation and fun than for advancement of research.   But any type of travel causes pollution. Unfortunately, the academic reward system for promotion and tenure places a value on participation in academic conferences. 

   It is time to revise this tradition. In the age of internet there must be other mechanisms to measure research productivity of scholars than article presentation. How about creating an online presentation and feedback mechanism, which is peer reviewed. Then the contribution of a scholar to a research topic, as an author or feedback provider, can be measured and reported for promotion purposes. The pollution and congestion cost of academic travel must be taken into account in its overall cost-benefit analysis. 

Why not travel less and pollute less? There is beauty everywhere. Peace and tranquility can be found in nearby destinations. If you like to travel but would like to minimize the negative environmental impact of your trip take a look at Andy Newman's in this New York Times article. 

Related Articles:

The benefits and costs of academic travel. Or "there and back again; again and again"

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The Climate Change Hypocrisy Of Jet-Setting Academics

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Research Shows Pollution from Global Tourism is Worst that We Thought (2018) 

Social and Economic Costs of Overeducation

Overeducation imposes several costs on a society that we will discuss in this page. Some of these costs are born by the the overeducated individual and some fall on the shoulder of the local or national community. Some costs of overeducate are financial but there are also some emotional and non-mpnetary costs. Some costs and consequences of overeducation are political. For example when there are too many college educated citizens that can not find suitable jobs, the risk of social and political instability increases. Overeducation can also impose a moral cost on society as it creates opportunities for corruption, nepotism and exploitation in employee-employer relations. We will categorize and discuss various costs of overeducation below.
1) Job Dissatisfaction: An advanced education and a college degree increases a worker's expectation. However, when a college graduate can not find a job that matches his skills and education he will be frustrated and will be dissatisfied with the job that he is able to find. He would feel overqualified and might even feel underapprecaited. These feelings can eventually lead to social discontent if shared by many workers.

Links to Websites on Economics of Higher Education

Economics of Higher Education