(Last update: July 27, 2019)
Should
immigrants advocate for more immigration?
The answer is no! It is not
unusual for an individual who has been fortunate enough to migrate to a
developed country, like the United States, to help his relatives join him. It
might even seem rational for an immigrant to advocate for pro-immigration
policies. Excess immigration however, can
lead to a native backlash with negative consequences for the immigrant
community.
Even in an immigration-based society like the United States, there
is a limit to how many immigrants the native population is willing to
tolerate-particularly when the ethnic and racial background of new immigrants
is different from the majority ethnic group. When the number of immigrants from
visibly different cultural and ethnic backgrounds grows too fast, the native
population develops hostile
attitudes toward immigrants. This hostility is partially rooted in
fear of the native ethnic group about losing their majority status in
political, cultural and economic spheres. As a result of this fear the
political movements that call for immigration freeze or expulsion of
immigrants will become more popular.
Overtime the immigrant-native ratio (I/N ratio) becomes
a key factor in sentiments of the native population toward immigration. The
natives will worry that this ratio might become too large and threaten their
numerical majority, which will be equivalent to an I/N ratio larger than one.
There is no specific common I/N threshold for the entire native
population. Some extreme and ethnocentric groups might be opposed to even
a small immigrant population (, feeling uneasy even if the I/N ratio stands at
0.1). Other native citizens might develop ratio anxiety at a higher threshold
(for example I/N = 0.4). A 2018 analysis of public opinion in the United States
by Sherkat
and Lehma, for example, has found a diversity of opinion about
immigration among various religious groups.
Nevertheless, it is not hard to imagine that as the number of
immigrants increases, eventually it might pass the threshold ratio of a
majority of the native population. In that case a country might find itself in
a situation that more than 50% of natives will experience ratio anxiety.
In a 2014 academic article, Benjamin Newman shows that
residents develop anti-immigration attitudes if the number of immigrants in
their local community increases sharply.
The social and political consequences of ratio anxiety among the
majority ethnic group (natives) should not be ignored. The negative attitude
toward immigrants might be rooted in racism for some individuals regardless of
the I/N ratio, but for many others it can be a result of ratio anxiety. The
anti-immigrant groups frequently play on this "ratio anxiety" of the
majority population to gain support for their cause and recruit members. This
ratio anxiety (the fear of becoming a minority as a result of immigration and higher
birth rates among some ethnic communities) has been visible in Europe and
the United
States since 1970s and increasingly referred to as the fear of
“replacement”.
In recent years the fear of replacement has emerged as the
dominant anti-immigration narrative in Europe. As explained in detail in a
recent (2017) New
Yorker article titled "The French Origins of You Will Not
Replace Us", a growing number of mainstream citizens who do not
identify with right-wing racist groups, are worried about the demographic
changes that reduce the share of white Europeans in total population. The
most recent champion of these demographic anxieties is Renaud Camos whose 2012
book le grant replacement articulates these ideas.
1) Native
Response to Over-Immigration
If the native population that is worried about the I/N
ratio does not find a political mechanism to stabilize or reduce this ratio,
some individuals might engage in negative and harmful behavior (toward “others”)
at personal (micro) level. These actions can lead to social instability and
make life more difficult for the groups that are perceived as "other"
by the native. The target groups might even be second or third generation
immigrants or even established minorities. Yet they might face the same
consequences because of the "otherness" of their appearance.
Strategic harassment: When the number of visible minorities (visible
"other") rises to a level that it causes anxiety in a community, the
native residents might engage in deliberate harassment and rejection of the
target groups in order to encourage them to leave and also to deter other
members of the target group from moving into their community. This type
harassment rose sharply in Germany after the government
admitted one million Syrian refugees in 2015. It also becomes a taboo for any
native to show a warm and welcoming attitude. This deliberate strategic
harassment can take the form of hate mail, dumping garbage on an immigrant's
yard, and more harmful activities such as property damage.
Overtime, many communities might engage in competitive strategic
harassment to deter undesirable families from moving into their neighborhood or
community.
Strategic avoidance: In more sophisticated, more prosperous communities, the natives
might express their displeasure not by overt harassment but by avoidance and
exclusion. They will treat visible "other" neighbors as if they don't
exist. They might avoid any interaction other than a minimum greeting
("Hi, How Are You?", "Good Morning!"), but never show any
interest in them as individuals or engage in any social interactions with them.
Strategic Cruelty: A local community, a state government or even the national government might adopt very serious measures to make the life experience very difficult for new comers and immigrants in an effort to deter further immigration. For example, a community might impose limits on social services for new immigrants, or it might deny bilingual education, or excessive search and ID checks on visible "others". Treatment of asylum seekers in the United States under Trump administration is an example of strategic cruelty that is intended to deter others from trying to seek asylum. Government bodies representing native populations engage in strategic cruelty when they cannot obtain sufficient political support for reducing or preventing immigration legally.
Examples of strategic cruelty and strategic
harassment are abundant in Germany after 2015. In 2015 the German government
admitted a million Syrian refugees. This policy angered a segment of German
population. As a result harassment, cruelty and violence against all visible
immigrants has intensified. The angry mobs not only target the new refugees but
they are making life more difficult for all visible minorities - even third and
fourth generation immigrants whose families have lived in Germany for 60 or 70
years.
Domestic White Flight: As the non-white population of a
community increases, the whites that feel concerned about the I/N ratio might
relocate to states with smaller non-white population. Studies of residential choice in the United
States based on census data provide strong
evidence for domestic white flight among communities and among states.
These relocations defeat the progressive federal policies that try to generate
more diverse communities. They also lead to geographic and political divide
among more diverse states and states with smaller non-white population. This
geographic divide at state level, in turn, will lead to a liberal-conservative
political divide over a wide range of socio-economic policies.
White Flight to Europe
While traditionally the trans-Atlantic flow of immigration has
always been east to west (from Europe to North America), high I/N ratio might
lead to a reverse migration by some white Americans to European countries with
a solid white majority. While imposing severe restrictions on non-white
migration many European countries welcome white immigrants, particularly their
own diaspora population. The reason is that they, on one hand they experience
low fertility among their native population and on the other hand their are
worried about high fertility among their non-European population. As a result
return to Europe is relatively easy for any white American that can prove
his/her European heritage. When Argentina faced a severe economic crisis in
1990s, some Argentinians where able to migrate to Italy simply because of their
Italian last name.
2) Immigrant Experience and Ratio Anxiety
When the immigrant community is relatively small and it is not
perceived as a threat to the population ratio of the native population, the
native population has a tolerant and positive attitude toward the immigrants.
If the population of immigrants grows larger and becomes a concern for the
natives then the native attitude toward immigrants will change and they will
face a hostile social environment. Immigrant families who initially felt
welcomed and accepted will gradually face rejection, discrimination and
hostility. As a growing number of minorities and immigrants move into suburban
neighborhoods the ratio anxiety is on the rise.
Suburban atomization and isolation: Some American suburbs have undergone a visible transformation as a result of the rapid influx of high-wealth, highly educated professional families from non-European ethnic groups. As the number of these visibly different residents in a community increases, the natives become more anxious about their “other-looking” neighbors. They try to minimize their interactions with these new neighbors and, as many social scientists have observed, the large number of new neighbors will result in the atomization of these communities. The sense of common values and community spirit will decline as neighbors become more distant from each other.
Gone are the days that
neighbors knew each other and they had occasional social interactions. Now each
resident family mostly socializes with members of its own ethnic community and
the interactions among neighbors of various ethnic communities is limited. In
prosperous suburbs everyone is nice and polite but no one shows much interest
in others. Not only the natives don't show much interest in “others”, but the
immigrant/ethnic families live in isolation from each other as well.
On a typical street in a
suburban town you can find families of Chinese, Indian, Russian, Iranian, Arab
and other ethnicities plus ordinary euro-Americans. However, it is rare to see
social interactions (such as friendships, dinner invitations, …) between two
neighbors of different ethnic backgrounds. Many residents don’t even know the
na e of their next door neighbors. This is happening at the same time that
residents are well aware of the growing ethno-isolation. If the ethnic balance
of these communities shifts even further in favor of new immigrants, the
situation is likely to get worse.
Education-obsessed neighborhoods: We are also observing a new
development in some high-income suburbs that have developed a positive
reputation for their education systems. These communities are very
attractive to ethnic groups that put a high value on education of their
children. However, as the ethnic mix changes and the share of these ethnic
groups increases, some native families with school age children stay away from
these communities because they are worried that most students in public schools
of these communities will be so competitive that their children will be in a
disadvantage.
This perception will keep away some families and lead to an even
larger concentration of education-oriented ethnic groups in these communities.
In a 2011
academic article Albert Saiz and Susan Wachter provide evidence of
white flight from neighborhoods that have experienced rapid increase in
immigration inflow. In a related 2013 study Tomas
Jimmez and Adam Horowitz look at how the norms of achievement and
success have changed in a California community with the rise of Asian
population.
Reverse Migration: Members of some minority and immigrant
communities that face discrimination and isolation as a result the native ratio
anxiety, might select to return to their countries of origin. This option
becomes more viable if their country of origin experiences a significant
increase in standard of leaving. Faced with ongoing and continuous ethnic
hostility in Germany, tens of thousands of people from the Turkish community
returned to Turkey in 2000s. This reverse migration was partly motivated by the
strong economy and availability of many business opportunities in that country
in the first decade of the 21st century. As China and India becomes
more prosperous and better developed we might witness a similar reverse
migration among Asian Americans.
Setback for Liberal Policies: The ratio anxiety among white Americans
has had a profound indirect impact on all types of public policy. The election
of President Trump was partly a result of this anxiety about over-immigration.
Many of the whites that voted for Trump were concerned about the browning of
America (a decline in the population share of whites as a result of rapid
immigration of non-whites into America). President Trump has slowed down or
suspended several environmental policies that would have boon good for
preventing global change. Reduction of restrictions on coal industry is a good
example. He has also reversed many other progressive achievements of the Obama
administration. The setback in healthcare reform under Trump administration is
very unfortunate. Had it not been for white concern about over-immigration, he
might not had been elected.
As the progressive politicians and advocacy groups fight to end
discrimination against immigrants they should not encourage more immigration.
Instead they should call for a significant reduction in legal immigration and
effective prevention of illegal immigration, in order to prevent further
demographic shift in the United States. Ending over-immigration and addressing
native anxiety will help reduce prejudice, racism and social rejection toward
immigrants. The young white men will then have less incentive to join right
wing extremist movements that chant "you
will not replace us".
3) The U.S. 2020 Presidential Elections and the Ratio Anxiety
In recent years the Democratic Oarty in the United States has
emerged as a party of minorities while a larger share of whites have gravitated
toward the Republican party. We are also witnessing a divergence between the
immigration policies of democrats and republicans. As Sahil Cooper
and Peter Coy have shown in their 2018 article this immigration divide is a new
development, which reflects the growing opposition to immigration among the
supporters of the republican party.
In their 2017 book, Marisa
Abrajano, Zoltan Hajnal offer detailed statistics on how the ethnic
and racial identity of the supporters of Republican and Democratic parties has
changed in recent decades and how the immigration debate has played out in
domestic politics. After the victory of Donald Trump in 2016 presidential
elections the Republican party, and President Trump, have adopted an
anti-immigration position, which includes imposing severe restrictions on legal
immigration and preventing any type of leniency toward illegal immigrants. The
Trump administration has also been very hostile toward asylum seekers.
President Trump is fully aware of the growing I/N ratio anxiety among
white voters.
The democratic party, on the other hand is advocating for more
tolerant immigration and asylum policies. The party has not shown any
sensitivity to the anxiety ratio of the native population. This insensitivity
is a mistake and might push a large number of white voters who have supported
the democratic party's liberal values on economic and healthcare policies
to vote republican. The ratio anxiety played an important role in President
Trump's success in the 2016 presidential elections.
It is clear that President Trump is aware of the growing anxiety
of some white voters about immigration. He will make immigration a leading
issue in his 2020 re-election campaign. The ugly chants of "Send
her back" during one of his presidential campaigns in July
2019 is a good demonstration of President Trump’s willingness to exploit these
sentiments. What the media did not notice during the same speech was the
silence of the same crowd when President Trump expressed support to merit-based
immigration of skilled workers. The crowd did not chant "Let them in".
This mute reaction was an indication of the participants’ opposition to all
types of immigration.
In order to reduce the number of white voters who might support
slogans like "Send her back", the Democratic Party must support a
significant reduction in immigration, while strongly rejecting racism and
ethnic prejudice.
In other words, the Democratic Party (and its 2020 Presidential
cadidates) must realize that there are many white Americans with liberal and
progressive views who are worried about the I/N ratio. It is also a mistake to
assume that the new immigrants and non-white ethnic minorities are interested
in large annual immigration, which will further increase the I/N ratio. They
might prefer a stable I/N ratio in order to prevent a native backlash and reduce
the risk of racial/ethnic tensions.
As a 2018 study on voting behavior of first and
second generation immigrants in Switzerland (where 23% of the population were
foreign born in 2014,) has shown, the members of the immigrant community are as
likely to oppose pro-immigration policies as the native population. In this
study Oliver Strijbis and Javier Polaviera found that the voting behavior of
immigrants in a 2014 referendum on immigration policy was similar
to the natives and majority of voters in both groups supported an
anti-immigration proposal.
***
Readings and references:
Sherkat, D. E., & Lehman, D. (2018). Bad Samaritans: Religion and Anti‐Immigrant and Anti‐Muslim Sentiment in the United States. Social Science Quarterly, 99(5), 1791-1804.
Jiménez, T. R., & Horowitz, A. L.
(2013). When white is just alright: How immigrants redefine achievement
and reconfigure the ethnoracial hierarchy. American Sociological Review, 78(5), 849-871.
Abrajano, M., & Hajnal, Z. L. (2017). White backlash: immigration, race, and American politics. Princeton University Press.
Strijbis, O., & Polavieja, J.
(2018). Immigrants against immigration: Competition, identity and
immigrants’ vote on free movement in Switzerland. Electoral Studies, 56, 150-157.
