Sunday, April 28, 2019

Work-Travel Opportunities for Low-wage Low-skill Workers

Engineer, Doctors, Businessmen, Professionals and high income persons in general, have many opportunities to travel inside their country and around the world. Low-wage workers, on the other hand, cannot afford to travel. Their families can hardly travel either because their job contract does not include any vacation or  they cannot afford to pay for the travel expenses.

There is, however, a possibility to give these low-income persons a chance to visit and spend a few days in other cities. If they work for a large corporation that has branches in many cities, the corporation can allow them to spend some time working in other branches or franchises.
Lets imagine this possibility by looking at Walmart. The Walmart corporation have stores all over the U.S. and in many other countries. The employees of Walmart in these stores do similar work. A person that works in the electronics department of one store branch can perform the same task in any other branch. So Walmart can allow its employees to spend a few weeks per year working in other branches. It can even create an employee swap program among stores.

This mechanism will allow a low-wage Walmart worker in New York to take his family to Miami for a couple of weeks and work in a Walmart store branch in that city. This way he will continue to get paid and his family can enjoy a vacation. This work-vacation policy is feasible and it will be a great service to millions of low-income working households all over the world.  

Friday, March 8, 2019

Immigrants Against Over-Immigration

Should Immigrants Advocate For More Immigration? 

(Last update: June 2019) 

The answer is no! It is natural for every individual who has been fortunate enough to migrate to a developed country, like the United States, to help his relatives join him. It might even seem rational for an immigrant to advocate for relaxed immigration policies, but excess immigration can have negative consequences for the immigrant community.

Even in an immigrant-based society like the United States there is a limit to how many immigrants the native population is willing to tolerate. When the number of immigrants from visibly different cultural and ethnic backgrounds grows too high, the native population develops hostile attitudes toward immigrants. There is no specific common threshold for the entire native population. Some extreme and ethnocentric groups might be opposed to even a small immigrant population. Other, more liberal citizens, might have a higher threshold. Nevertheless, it is not hard to imagine that as the number of immigrants increases, eventually it might pass the threshold ratio of a majority of the native population.  In a 2014 academic article, Benjamin Newman shows that residents develop anti-immigration attitudes if the number of immigrants in their local community increases sharply. The negative attitude toward immigrants might be rooted in racism for some individuals but for some others it can be a result of a fear that the native population's ratio of total population will decline over time and it will lose its majority status. The anti-immigrant groups frequently play on this "ratio anxiety" of the majority population to gain support for their cause and recruit members. This ratio anxiety (the fear of becoming a minority as a result of immigration and higher birth rates among some immigrant communities) has been visible in Europe and the United States since 1970s.

When the immigrant community is relatively small and it is not perceived as a threat to the population ratio of the native population, the native population has a tolerant and positive attitude toward the immigrants. If the population of immigrants grows larger and becomes a concern for the natives then the native attitude toward immigrants will change and they will face a hostile social environment. So it does not make sense for immigrants to support more immigration without taking into account the risk of this adverse outcome. 

Some American suburbs have undergone a visible transformation as a result of the rapid influx of high-wealth, highly educated professional families from non-european ethnic groups. The large number of new neighbors has resulted in the atomization of these communities. The sense of community has declined as the older (European/native) neighbors are showing less and less interest in their new neighbors. Gone are the days that neighbors knew each other and they had occasional social interactions.  Now each resident family mostly socializes with members of its own ethnic community and the interactions among various ethnic communities is limited. Everyone is nice and polite but no one has much interest in others. Not only the natives don't show much interest in others, but the immigrant families live in isolation from each other as well. This is happening at the same time that residents are fully aware of the growing ethno-isolation. If the ethnic balance of these communities shifts even further in favor of new immigrants, the situation is likely to get worse.

We are observing a new development in some high income suburbs that have developed a positive reputation for their education systems.  These communities are very attractive to ethnic groups that put a high value on education of their children. However, as the ethnic mix changes and the share of these ethnic groups rises above a threshold, some families with school age children stay away from these communities because they are worried that most students will be so competitive in public schools that their children will be in a disadvantage. This perception will keep away some families and lead to an even larger concentration of education-oriented ethnic groups in these communities. In a 2011 academic article Albert Saiz and Susan Wachter provide evidence of white flight from neighborhoods that have experienced rapid increase in immigration inflow.

The ratio anxiety among white Americans has had a profound indirect impact on all types of public policy. Election of President Trump was a result of this anxiety about over-immigration. Many of the whites that voted for Trump were concerned about the browning of America (a decline in the population share of whites as a result of rapid immigration of non-whites into America). President Trump has slowed down or suspended several environmental policies that would have boon good for preventing global change. Reduction of restrictions on coal industry is a good example. He has also reversed many other progressive achievements of the Obama administration. The setback in healthcare reform under Trump administration is very unfortunate. Had it not been for white concern about over-immigration, he might not had been elected.

As the democratic party and progressive activist groups fight to end ethnic and racial discrimination against immigrants they should not encourage more immigration. Instead they should call for a significant reduction in immigration to prevent further demographic shift in the United States. Ending over-immigration and  addressing native anxiety will help reduce prejudice, racism and social rejection toward immigrants. The young white men will then have less incentives to join right wing movements that chant "You will not replace us."

Response to Over-Immigration: 

Strategic harassment: When the number of visible minorities (visible "other") rises to a level that it causes anxiety in a community, the native residents might engage in deliberate harassment and rejection of the target groups in order to encourage them to leave and also to deter other members of the target group from moving into their community. It also becomes a taboo for any native to show a warm and welcoming attitude. This deliberate strategic harassment can take the form of hate mail, dumping garbage on an immigrant's yard, and more harmful activities such as property damage.
Overtime, many communities might engage in competitive strategic harassment to deter undesirable families from moving into their neighborhood.

Strategic avoidance: In more sophisticated, more prosperous communities, the natives might express their displeasure not by overt harassment but by avoidance and exclusion. They will treat visible "other" neighbors as if they don't exist. They might avoid any interaction other than a minimum greeting ("Hi, How Are You?", "Good Morning") but never any interest or neighborly interaction.

Strategic Cruelty: A local community, a state government or even the national government might adopt very serious measures to make the life experience very difficult for new comers and immigrants in an effort to deter further immigration. For example, a community might impose limits on social services for new immigrants, or it might deny bilingual education, or excessive search and ID checks on visible "other"s. Treatment of asylum seekers in the United States under Trump administration is an example of strategic cruelty that is intended to deter others from trying to seek asylum. Government bodies representing native populations engage in strategic cruelty when they cannot obtain sufficient political support for reducing or preventing immigration legally.
   Examples of strategic cruelty and strategic harassment are abundant in Germany after 2015. In 2015 the German government admitted a million Syrian refugees. This policy angered a segment of German population. As a result harassment, cruelty and violence against all visible immigrants has intensified. The angry mobs not only target the new refugees but they are making life more difficult for all visible minorities - even third and fourth generation immigrants whose families have lived in Germany for 60 or 70 years.

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Travel Less. Eat Less. Pollute Less.

Travel is fun! People all over the world love to travel. When you travel, however,  you pollute. Any type of travel leads to air pollution and solid waste pollution. A recent detailed study on the environmental impact of global tourism has shown that the contribution of global tourism to global warming and pollution is much larger than previously estimated. 

It will not be fair or practical to ask people to stop traveling for vacation or business, but it makes sense for all of us to travel less to help reduce air pollution and global warming. If you have seen a beautiful city like Paris ten times why not forego your next trip to Paris and give a chance to another human being to visit that city for the first time. The severe and worsening income inequality around the world means that a small share of human population gets to travel a lot and a large segment can not afford to travel at all. 

With the advancement and availability of internet it is possible to substitute virtual travel for actual travel. There are many beautiful places that you see just by going to an appropriate website. There are even live cameras that will take you live to many cities, to jungles of Africa, to mountains of south America, to coral reaves, to many many places.

Less Business Travel:

Many business trips are unnecessary. You can meet business partners by Skype. You can send a product sample by Fed Ex and then discuss it with a potential buyer on Skype.  Businesses don't mind because they can deduct a portion of the travel costs from their corporate income tax and can pass a portion to consumers. Business leaders have a moral duty to minimize business travel until we find a way to stop and reverse global warming. 

Travel Less for Academic Conferences 

   Academic conferences are also unnecessary. There was a time when attending an academic conference was the only way to network with other experts in your field and initiate joint research. Those days are gone. Now all scholars who like to exchange ideas or do joint projects are continuously in contact by email and Skype and instant messenger and Facebook and ..... Conference participation is seen more as a trip for relaxation and fun than for advancement of research.   But any type of travel causes pollution. Unfortunately, the academic reward system for promotion and tenure places a value on participation in academic conferences. 

   It is time to revise this tradition. In the age of internet there must be other mechanisms to measure research productivity of scholars than article presentation. How about creating an online presentation and feedback mechanism, which is peer reviewed. Then the contribution of a scholar to a research topic, as an author or feedback provider, can be measured and reported for promotion purposes. The pollution and congestion cost of academic travel must be taken into account in its overall cost-benefit analysis. 

Why not travel less and pollute less? There is beauty everywhere. Peace and tranquility can be found in nearby destinations. 

Monday, February 11, 2019

كم فرزندى (Low fertility couples)

زايش ستيزى درست نيست اما كم فرزندى براى يك يا دو نسل خيلى خوب است چون به كاهش جمعيت .بشر كمك ميكند و سرعت نابودى محيط زيست توسط بشر كند خواهد شد.

Our planet is overpopulated. Excess human population has led to pollution, global warming, extinction of many species of plants and animals, and worsening global competition for the limited natural resources of our ecosystem. Governments and political leaders have not been able to show effective leadership in addressing the global challenges such as global warming. It is up to all of us as individuals to do our share in reducing the adverse impact of humanity on the planet's ecosystem.

The best step that any young adult can take in this direction is to reduce the pace of population growth or even reverse it. We have an instinctive desire to have children but the most important step toward saving our planet is to have fewer children. Limiting the number of children to one or less is a sacrifice that will benefit the future generations. If a large number of young couples all around the world forego the joy of having two or more children, the population growth rate will not only slow down but we might also witness an era of negative population growth.
The world population is projected to rise to nine billion by 2050. If one or two generation of young couples limit their fertility to one or zero children we might be able to stabilize of even reduce the world population below current level of 7.5 billion.

Let us cherish and honor the single child and childless couples.

Unfortunately some communities are locked in fertility wars that lead to a faster population growth. Jews and Palestinians are engaged in fertility competition because of the Arab-Israel conflict. Some countries such as Hungary are encouraging more fertility for fear of "undesirable" immigrants. These behaviors might seem patriotic but if many countries engage in demographic competition the net effect is a faster growth rate of total human population.

Some countries that were successful in reducing population growth have reversed their policies and are now encouraging families to have more children because of their rising elderly population. Best example in this category is China. Transition to a lower population is a better policy than encouraging high fertility for sake of supporting a large elderly population. If fertility remains low, the share of elderly population will diminish and stabilize after one or two generation. The quality of life will be better and the standard of living in China will be higher if its population declines to under one billion by 2050 rather than rising to 1.5 billion.

Monday, January 21, 2019

过度教育现象 (China)

国际过度教育网(Overeducation International) 是注册在美国麻省州的非盈利组织。
这个网站致力于研究全球大学毕业生的供给与需求。各个国家对高等教育都十分的重视。政府和公民花费大量的资金用于高等教育。对于高等教育的大规模投资导致大学毕业生的供给迅速增加。在许多国家,大学毕业生的过度供给现象十分显著,越来越多的大学毕业生无法找到合适的工作。他们要不就是待业在家,要不就是接受低技能的工作。国际过度教育网 (OI) 致力研究过度教育的现象,并引起社会对过度教育起因和结果的关注。
China: Structural Imbalance of Higher Education Through Higher Education
反思"学历高就业难": 我们到底需要多少研究生
"研究生不如本科车" 就业率为何与学历"倒挂"
More workers say they are over-educated
Overeducation or Undereducation-Some Evidence from Chineses Graduates
Do Chinese Employers Avoid Hiring Overqualified Workers? Evidence from an Internet Job Board
An Observation on Graduates' Over-Education and Under-Education of Higher Education
Graduate Unemployment in China: A Market Demand Perspective
The Essence of Overeducation in China (full text download)
The Incidence and Wage Effects of Overeducation: the Case of Taiwan

إتخام علمي (Arabic)

يخيّم اليأس على حاملي الشهادات العليا (الدكتوراه والماجستير) في العراق، بسبب فرص التّوظيف الضئيلة، الّتي جعلتهم يطرقون أبواب الوزارات الحكوميّة والقطاع الخاصّ على حدّ سواء، لأجل الحصول على العمل، لكن من دون جدوى . وفي محافظة بابل (100 كلم جنوبيّ بغداد)، حضر "المونيتور" ندوة حواريّة في 7 شباط/فبراير، اشترك فيها نحو المائتين من العاطلين من أصحاب الشهادات العليا، في قاعة مردوخ، في منتجع "بابل السياحيّ"، وحضرها النّائب هيثم الجبّوري وممثلون عن وزارة التّعليم العالي ومنظّمات المجتمع الدوليّ، وتخلّلتها حوارات عن سبل النّهوض بفرص التّوظيف والعمل.

المطالبة بتعيين حملة الشهادات العليا خريجو الجامعات العراقية انحسرت فرص عملهم في دوائر الدولة فاستقبلتهم (بسطات) الارصفة(2015)

عددهم فاق الأربعة آلاف وأكثرهم من بابل.. حملة الشهادات العليا .. بطالة متزايدة
ـ علي اعاد ذكريات دراسته بحسرة بدءاً من دخوله إلى الجامعة وحتى حصوله على شهادة الماجستير . كان علي مفعما بالنشاط والطموح فحبه لطلب العلم جعله من المتفوقين في دراسته مما دعا أساتذته لتشجيعه على إكمال دراسته الجامعية. فحصل على شهادة الماجستير ببسالة علمية. هنا توقف شريط ذكرياته وأفاق على صوت صاحب المحل الذي يعمل معه في احد محال التجارة في الحلة بأجر يومي . ابتسم بمرارة وهو يصحو على واقعه المرير ،فرق شاسع بين ما تعلمه وما يعمله حالياً . المقارنة جعلت منه إنساناً يعيش إحباط الشباب بكل تفاصيله . لكن هناك بصيصا من الأمل في صدره الذي أثقلته الهموم عسى أن تصحو الحكومة وتجد مكاناً لأصحاب الشهادات العليا في جسد الدولة العراقية .2014-12-08

التعليم النيابية : العراق بحاجة لثلاثة آلاف درجة وظيفية من حملة الشهادات العليا

2أعلنت لجنة التعليم النيابية ،الخميس ،عن حاجة البلاد إلى أكثر من ثلاثة ألاف درجة وظيفية في 2015 من ذوي الدراسات العليا حاملي شهادات الماجستير والدكتوراه مطالبه  الحكومة بتخصيص نسبة من التعيينات  في موازنة العام الجاري لحملة الشهادات العليا.015/01/08 

التعليم العالي في مصر: هل تؤدي المجانية إلى تكافؤ الفرص؟

كان الارتقاء في السلم التعليمي دوماً هو السبيل إلى حراك مجتمعي يأخذ بيد المصريين للانتقال إلى طبقة اجتماعية أكثر تأثيراً، كما كان دوماً هو الطريق للانتقال من مرحلة التهميش لمرحلة التمكين الاقتصادي والاجتماعي والسياسي. وظل التحاق الأبناء بالجامعة هو الأمل الذي يداعب أحلام الطبقات التي لم يتح لها فرصة التعليم الجامعي باعتباره طوق النجاة من الإقصاء وصمام الأمان لمستوى حياة لائقة.

  (2012) ما مدى كفاءة المدارس في تعليم الشباب؟

حققت مصر تقدماً كبيراً في رفع معدل إلتحاق جيل الشباب بالمدارس. وعلى الرغم من ذلك، فإن الفئات السكانية المُهمشة، ولاسيما الفتيات في صعيد مصر، لازلن يعانين الحرمان من الوصول الي التعليم. ولذلك، فإنه يتعين على مصر أن تطبق طرق تعليم ة بديلة لمن تخطى سن الالتحاق بالمدارس وكذلك ى بعض السياسات مثل التحويل النقدي المشروط الذي قد يفيد في امكانية إلتحاق الشباب

Spring Fun (شادى پرندگان , نادر حبيبى 2019)

Video:  Spring Fun (شادى پرندگان , نادر حبيبى 2019)