In the past two months the domestic critics and dissidents have become more vocal in their criticism of the Islamic Regime and Ayatollah Khamenei. The maverick former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has issued a number of highly controversial statements in the past four weeks. He has gone as far as calling Ayatollah Khamenei the representative of Satan (as opposed to being the representative of god.) He also has predicted that "in the near future there will be positive developments and people of Iran will escape their current predicament. " This has been interpreted as prediction of a regime collapse. Yet, so far the regime has not tried to arrest or stop him. In another similar development a singer who released a very critical song last month and called on the leader to hide or face the wrath of the people, was detained for a couple of weeks. Then in an unexpected move the security forces released him and he has continued to speak out against the regime.
The regime continues to arrest opponents, but in a random manner. One person is arrested and another person that makes more radical statements goes on and nothing happens. What is behind this random and unpredictable strategy? In recent weeks many Iran observers and political activists have noticed this development and have offered several explanations about the logic behind the regime's new strategy for dealing with dissent and criticism.
November 19, 2021: The farmers in the Province of Isfahan (in Central Iran) have organized a sit-in on the dried-up Zayandehrood river at the center of the city. This is the 12th day of this protest and it has received significant support from ordinary people. Farmers are protesting the lack of water. Iran is experiencing a severe drought and farmers blame the government for mismanagement of water resources. So far the security forces have not arrested the farmers and have not tried to disperse them.
Worker protests and organized strikes are not unusual in Iran but they usually do not receive mass support. This farmers protest is unusual in the amount of attention and solidarity that it has received. In recent days the number of people that have joined the farmers' protest has exceeded 100,000. The protestors have set up tents and their protest resemble the Arab Spring protests in Cairo (Egypt) in late 2010 and early 2011.
Political activists have noticed the growing popular support for the farmer protests and they are calling on people in other cities to organize gatherings in support and solidarity. The farmers protest in Isfahan has the potential to expand into national mass protests. The news of the protest is rapidly distributed through social media.
December 11, 2021: While the mass gathering of Isfahan residents on November 19 was tolerated by the security forces and there was no confrontation, the attempts by the citizens to gather in the same location (Zayandehrood), was forcefully prevented by security forces who attacked the people with birdshot pellet guns and tear gas. Up to 30 people suffered face and eye injuries as a result of these attacks and at least one woman was killed. This violent reaction has ended the protests. The security forces blocked the area on Friday, December 3th and prevented people from gathering. Several opposition groups invited people to gather in the same place on Friday, December 10th but no one showed up.
The use force by security forces was more restrained on November 19th in comparison to the October 2019 uprisings, During 2019 protests up to 1500 civilians were killed as live ammunition and lethal weapons were used. In my opinion this incident is still consistent with the argument that the ruling regime is more cautious about using force lethal force against the civilians.