Last update: June 10, 2021.
On June 2nd there was a major fire in Tehran refinery. The fire was so large that the flame and smoke was visible for 50 kilometers. We the firefighters contained this fire there was a report that another major fuel storage in the same refinery had caught fire. The next day (June 3rd) there were some videos uploaded in social media, which showed that an oil pipe in southern Iran province of Khuzestan had exploded. As explained in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, it is hard to believe these events are all accidental.
An oil exporting country like Iran must have effective fire prevention mechanisms in all of its oil and gas institutions. Yet unfortunately accidents like this happen with more frequency than most other oil exporting countries. One explanation for this is poor management of these facilities.
A day earlier on June 1st, there was a report about fire in a large naval ship (by some accounts Iran's largest warship) in the Gulf of Oman near the Jask port. The navy was unable to contain this fire and the warship sank on June 2nd.
These are only a few examples of many fires and explosions and other types of costly accidents in government owned facilities that have become more frequent in recent years. There are two possible explanations for these events: A) Weak management and planning, B) Sabotage by regional enemies of the Islamic republic regime. Both of these causes point to a serious and unprecedented governance failure. The first one represents failure in planning and preventing fires and other accidents by government officials and public sector managers. C) Some of the more recent fires in non-military targets can be acts of "simple sabotage" by dissidents. They can be acting alone out of frustration or even with some support agents of external powers. If this is the case it represents a costly reaction by ordinary people who are frustrated by economic hardship and non-responsiveness of the ruling regime to citizens.
The second one represents failure in management of foreign policy and engagement in regional confrontations against adversaries that can easily penetrate inside Iran and cary out large scale sabotage against infrastructure and industrial units. The Islamic Republic has chosen to confront Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia simultaneously. This three-front conflict has motivated these countries to engage in covert and sabotage operations against strategic and economic targets in all parts of Iran. The multiple attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and assassination of nuclear scientists (Mainly by Israel) are well documented. Yet there have been multiple fires, explosions and cyberattacks again other targets which have caused considerable damage. Before adopting this confrontational foreign policy Iran should have evaluated its ability to defeat against such counterattacks.
These sabotage operations are not only very damaging but the inability of Iran's defense and counterintelligence organizations in preventing them is very humiliating for all citizens. Lack of planning and anticipation of these costly attacks by the adversaries of the Islamic regime is a clear example of governance failure. (Last update: June 5, 2021)