While the news of war and assassination and violent protests attract attention when they come out of Middle East, some important developments in the other direction (negotiations and agreements to reduce tensions) receive less media and public attention. In the past two years several Middle East rivals have initiated negotiations to reduce their tensions and improve economic and diplomatic relations.
After four years Saudi Arabia and the UAE are gradually reducing tensions with Qatar and there have beed several diplomatic contacts in this direction. Iraq has mediated several rounds of negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran and the UAE have also had several negotiations to reduce their tension.
The most proactive country in this regard has been Turkey. After the Arab Spring (2010-2011) Turkey's relations with several Arab nations deteriorated. Turkish support for Muslim Brotherhood damaged relations with Egypt. The same concern plus Turkey's support for Qatar deteriorated her relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Tensions also intensified as Turkey intervened in Libya's civil war. Egypt and the UAE supported the opposite side in the Libyan conflict and accused Turkey of pursuing a secret neocolonial agenda to restore the Ottoman Empire in Arab lands. Now after more than ten years, President Erdogan is making an effort to improve these relations. In the past two years Turkey has tried to reduce tensions with Egypt, and the UAE. President Erdogan has also taken steps to reduce tensions with Israel after severely criticizing the UAE for developing diplomatic relations with that country in 2020.
This flexibility and pragmatism in Turkey's foreign policy is partly rooted in priority of economic and trade objectives for President Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). He needs to improve the economy before the 2023 presidential elections. The most important test of this pragmatism however is Syria. Will Turkey change its rigid policy of rejecting the Assad regime? Normalization of relations with Syria is an important step toward expanding Turkey's trade with the Levant region (Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt). As the Arab World restores relations with Syria and recognizes the durability of Assad regime, Turkey will have more incentives to modify its policy toward Syria.
September 27, 2021: Saudi and Iranian officials have expressed positive assessments about the bilateral negotiations that have been mediated by Iraq. This is good news and it can help reduce the tensions that can lead to escalation. These announcements come at a time that there are new tensions in Iran-Azerbaijan border. Any progress in reduction of animosity between Iran and Saudi Arabia is good news but I am not very optimistic. There have been several attempts in the past by former Iranian presidents Rafsanjani and Ahmadi Nejad to reduce Iran-Saudi tensions but with little progress. Nevertheless every marginal improvement is good. It is good for Iran, good for Saudi Arabia, good for Iraq and good for Yemen!
September 28, 2021: Turkey and Pakistan are not rivals but they are expanding their strategic and military relations in an unusual way in recent months. While they share no borders, they participated in join military exercises which also included Azerbaijan and was held in that country in September 2021. These exercises were called "Operation Three Brothers". Yet what is even more significant about Turkey-Pakistan strategic cooperation is their joint weapon system development projects. Turkey has joined Pakistan for development of jet fighters (JF-17), which utilize Chinese technology. This Turkey Pakistan cooperation will also increase their technological and strategic ties with China.